Market research firm IRI predicts that your Thanksgiving dinner will cost around 13.5% more compared to last year, in light of how retail costs in the four weeks through October 16 compared to a similar period in 2021. IRI measures items including turkey and other meat, baking essentials, beverages and famous side dishes in its list of Thanksgiving food sources.

Regardless of whether retailers offer promotions in the weeks or days leading up to the holiday, those costs will in any case probably be higher than in a similar period a year prior, said Alastair Steel, executive of IRI Client Engagement.

“Promotions could swing the number a little, but I don’t expect [them] to swing it in a meaningful way,” he told CNN Business. “If anything, there are slightly less promotions,” this year, he added, because manufactures have been increasing prices as their own costs rise.

It’s no surprise that Thanksgiving is expected to be more costly this year given how high grocery costs have been in general. Extreme weather conditions like drought and diseases, including the highly contagious avian influenza, among different factors, have added to obstinately high food expansion. In the year through September, not adapted to seasonal shifts, grocery costs shot up 13%, as per the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Shoppers understand what’s coming. Around 38% of shoppers are hoping to pay something else for Thanksgiving meals this year, despite the fact that they’re planning to purchase a similar amount of food, as per an IRI survey directed in September.

There may as yet be some alleviation in the grocery aisle, in any case. Rebate retailers like Aldi and Lidl have guaranteed low costs on some Thanksgiving favorites this year.

Aldi said it would bring down certain costs to 2019 levels, and Lidl said that its typical Thanksgiving basket, including frozen turkey, new cranberries, sweet potatoes and more, will cost under $30 and feed 10 individuals, while supplies last. Discount retailers have gotten new clients as expansion has risen.